Wave Forecasting using Meta-cognitive Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Inference System

摘要

Renewable energy is fast becoming a mainstay in today’s energy scenario. One of the important sources of renewable energy is the wave energy, in addition to wind, solar, tidal, etc. Wave prediction/forecasting is consequently essential in coastal and ocean engineering studies. However, it is difficult to predict wave parameters in long term and even in the short term due to its intermittent nature. This study aims to propose a solution to handle the issue using Interval type-2 fuzzy inference system, or IT2FIS. IT2FIS has been shown to be capable of handling uncertainty associated with the data. The proposed IT2FIS is a fuzzy neural network realizing Takagi-Sugeno-Kang inference mechanism employing meta-cognitive learning algorithm. The algorithm monitors knowledge in a sample to decide an appropriate learning strategy. Performance of the system is evaluated by studying significant wave heights obtained from buoys located in Singapore. The results compared with existing state-of-the art fuzzy inference system approaches clearly indicate the advantage of IT2FIS based wave prediction.