Scenario analysis of management processes in the prevention and the elimination of consequences of man-made disasters

摘要

The article represents the analysis of using the possibilities of the scenario analysis methods and modelling in the process of solving the planning and management problems of measures to ensure the man-made safety of a wide range of potentially dangerous production and infrastructure facilities. The classification of emergency situations (ES) on potentially dangerous objects is given in terms of the readiness degree of the management system and technical services to eliminate the consequences of emergencies. The main stages and technology of formation of scenarios for the development of man-made disasters and emergencies are considered. The processes of modelling and synthesis of alternative scenarios for the development of ES are proposed to be implemented using the theory of functional sign graphs. An example of practical use of the scenario analysis methodology in the process of solving the problem of management the consequences of emergencies in a land production facility (building) is given.