Why closing an Airport May not Matter – The Impact of the Relocation of TXL Airport on the Bus Network of Berlin

摘要

This paper investigates the closure of TXL airport and its impact on the bus network of Berlin. The results of the scenario are based on a co-evolutionary algorithm for public transit network design. The algorithm is integrated in a multi-modal multi-agent simulation. In the simulation, competing minibus operators start exploring the public transport market offering their services. With more successful operators expanding and less successful operators going bankrupt, a sustainable network of minibus services evolves. In the TXL scenario, the impact of the massive change in demand is found to be locally confined. Only transit lines serving TXL airport directly are affected. Furthermore, transit lines are found to have a higher probability of surviving if connecting two different activity centers, e.g. transit hubs. Following a hub-and-spoke approach by letting the line end in low-demand areas renders a line less attractive because of a reduced connectivity, e.g. to one train station only.