Main Factors and Implications of Policies Implemented in Romania in the Context of the Current Global Crisis

摘要

This paper aims to critically analyze the most important determinants of the current crisis, the solutions adopted by the Romanian authorities and their impact on real economy. The paper studies the main causes of the current financial and economic global crisis, including the contagion effect that manifested, including in the case of Romanian economy. Although the starting factor is considered to be the uncontrolled expansion of credit, the roots of the financial crisis are deeper, such as macroeconomic and microeconomic, as noted by several analysts: Altman (2009), Buiter (2007) and Blanchard (2009). We consider that the two types of causes are interconnected. In order to analyze this idea, we use tables and graphical interpretation based on Eurostat and National Prognosis Commission of Romania Database. The analysis undertaken in this study aims to determine the effectiveness of policies implemented by Romanian authorities, analyzing the evolution of main macroeconomic indicators in the period that followed the crisis started using a correlation matrix for ante-crisis period 2002 – 2008 and the crisis one, 2009 - 2012. We found that the financial crisis had a strong effect on the correlation between the selected macroeconomic indicators and the majority of the links between the variables changed in the opposite direction. Another aspect is that after the financial crisis had begun all macroeconomic variables started to be stronger correlated.