A Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Crashes at Mid-Blocks in Melbourne Metropolitan Area

摘要

Pedestrian crashes account for 11% of all reported traffic crashes in Melbourne metropolitan area between 2004 and 2013. There are very limited studies on pedestrian accidents at mid-blocks. Mid-block crashes account for about 46% of the total pedestrian crashes in Melbourne metropolitan area. Meanwhile, about 50% of all pedestrian fatalities occur at mid-blocks. In this research, Partial Proportional Odds (PPO) model is applied to examine vehicle-pedestrian crash severity at mid-blocks in Melbourne metropolitan area. The PPO model is a logistic regression model that allows the covariates that meet the proportional odds assumption to affect different crash severity levels with the same magnitude; whereas the covariates that do not meet the proportional odds assumption can have different effects on different severity levels. In this research vehicle-pedestrian crashes at mid-blocks are analysed for first time. In addition, some factors such as distance of crashes to public transport stops, average road slope and some social characteristics are considered to develop the model in this research for first time. Results of PPO model show that speed limit, light condition, pedestrian age and gender, and vehicle type are the most significant factors that influence vehicle-pedestrian crash severity at mid-blocks.