On the issue of fluctuations in the extreme maximum runoff under the conditions of the expected climate change in the Marmarik river basin

摘要

The paper analyzes the peculiarities of formation of the absolute maximum runoff of the Marmarik river evaluates the patterns of multi-year fluctuations of maximum runoff rates in different river sites and gives a forecast of the maximum runoff in the context of global climate change. Absolute values of the maximum river runoff for different scenarios of climate change are estimated. The actual observational data of Armhydromet for maximum runoff rate, the air temperature and precipitation were used as the source material. As a result of the study, it turned out that there is only a tendency to decrease in the values of maximum runoff. It turned out that for all scenarios and cases in the Marmarik river basin, a different degree of changes in the maximum flow is observed. Moreover, the largest decrease in the maximum runoff of the Marmarik river basin is expected under the conditions of an increase in the average air temperature of the spring season by 2,7—3,9 degrees Celsius and a decrease in the amount of spring atmospheric precipitation by 2,4—2,6 %.