Scenario Assessment of CO ₂ and Air Pollutants Emission Reduction Policies for Private Passenger Vehicles in China

摘要

The rapid increase of private passenger vehicles in China has brought about serious problems of CO_(2)and air pollutant emissions. It has important practical guiding significance to compare the effects of emission reduction policies. In this paper, the LEAP system is used as a tool with classifying the private passenger vehicles according to the heterogeneity of displacement and fuel economy. The different emission reduction policy scenarios are simulated with respective implementation time and characteristic parameters. It is found that the management target of fuel economy is difficult to be realized by existing policies. Even the most stringent emission standards are all implemented, it is also necessary to cooperate with green travel which is mainly about reducing vehicles’ annual travel distance. Although the annual increment of private passenger car is huge, however, there will be a certain downward trend in the discharge of air pollutants. On this basis, it is suggested that a policy goal of maintaining or lowering the emission level can be established. The research suggests that, on the supply side the government should continue to strengthen the management of fuel economy, improve the emission standards, boost the new energy vehicles vigorously, the energy saving vehicles under overall consideration and diesel cars carefully, while on the demand side the green travel should be encouraged at the same time.