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Potential extreme events in the Polish wind energy sector, based on historical data

机译:根据历史数据,波兰风能领域可能发生的极端事件

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Wind energy is beginning to play a significant role in the Polish energy sector, in terms of both installed capacity and delivered energy. However, as a highly variable source, wind energy makes management of the power system complicated, especially when extreme events occur. Therefore, the objective of this paper was twofold. Firstly, it aims to simulate the operation of the Polish wind sector based on available satellite-derived wind speed data and the known spatial distribution of wind parks. Secondly, based on the created model and hourly wind speed values covering the period 01.1980–08.2017 we have analysed the statistical parameters of potential wind generation, concentrating mainly on extreme events (such as low generation and ramp rates). The results show that for an installed capacity of 5.8 GW the likelihood of generation going below 250 MWh for 1 hour is 0.26%, and, for 5 hours, is 0.1%. Ramp rates exhibit significant seasonal patterns and the highest (on an hourly time scale) can be as much as 1,295 MWh and -1,698 MWh (up and down, respectively).
机译:无论是装机容量还是已输送的能源,风能在波兰能源领域都开始发挥重要作用。但是,作为高度可变的能源,风能使电力系统的管理变得复杂,特别是在发生极端事件时。因此,本文的目的是双重的。首先,它的目的是基于可用的卫星衍生风速数据和已知的风电场分布来模拟波兰的风力部门的运行。其次,基于创建的模型和涵盖01.1980–08.2017期间的每小时风速值,我们分析了潜在风力发电的统计参数,主要集中在极端事件(例如,低发电量和斜坡率)上。结果表明,对于装机容量为5.8 GW的情况,发电量在1个小时内低于250 MWh的可能性为0.26%,而在5个小时内为0.1%。升温速率表现出明显的季节性模式,最高(按小时时间尺度)可以高达1,295 MWh和-1,698 MWh(分别为向上和向下)。

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