Historical Trends Related to Bioterrorism: An Empirical Analysis

摘要

Since the Japanese doomsday cult Aum Shinrikyo released sarin nerve gas on the Tokyo subway in March 1995, killing 12 people, terrorist incidents and hoaxes involving toxic or infectious agents have been on the rise. Before the late 1990s, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) typically investigated a dozen cases per year involving the acquisition or use of chemical, biological, radiologic, or nuclear materials; however, FBI opened 74 such investigations in 1997 and 181 in 1998 (1). Although 80% of these incidents have been hoaxes, some were unsuccessful attacks (2). The vulnerability of civilian populations to chemical, biological, radiologic, or nuclear terrorism has been widely discussed, but information on historical cases is anecdotal and often inaccurate (3). Without a realistic threat assessment based on solid empirical data, government policymakers lack the knowledge they need to design prudent and cost-effective programs for preventing or mitigating future incidents.