Meteorologic Influences on Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in the Highland Tea Estates of Kericho, Western Kenya

摘要

Recent epidemics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria have been observed in high-altitude areas of EastAfrica. Increased malaria incidence in these areas of unstable malaria transmission has been attributed toa variety of changes including global warming. To determine whether the reemergence of malaria in west-ern Kenya could be attributed to changes in meteorologic conditions, we tested for trends in a continuous30-year monthly malaria incidence dataset (1966–1995) obtained from complete hospital registers at aKenyan tea plantation. Contemporary monthly meteorologic data (1966–1995) that originated from the teaestate meteorologic station and from global climatology records were also tested for trends. We found thattotal hospital admissions (malaria and nonmalaria) remained unchanged while malaria admissionsincreased significantly during the period. We also found that all meteorologic variables showed no trendsfor significance, even when combined into a monthly suitability index for malaria transmission. We con-clude that climate changes have not caused the highland malaria resurgence in western Kenya