A Mathematical Model for Assessment of Socio- Economic Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Activities: Cases of the East of Morocco (Africa)

摘要

Objectives: The work aims to presents a novel application of mathematical modelling framework that is assesses Socioeconomic impact of climate change on agriculture activities, taking into account the agricultural, socio-economic and hydrology systems. Methods and Novelty: An integrated model disaggregated by type of farms was developed for a pilot area named “Ait Ben Yacoub ? located in the East of Morocco. This model integrates economic, agronomic hydraulic and social data. One Major contribution of this model is a detailed disaggregation by spatial units (hydrological units, cropping areas) and by farm sizes to assess the social impact of climate change on different types of farms. It’s an optimization model with a nonlinear objective function and that was calibrated with the use of the positive mathematical programming method. Findings: The model results show the tremendous impact of climate change on farmers’ incomes and on their living standards. It also shows that small farms of less than 2ha in area will be most vulnerable to climate change. Applications: The current work was designed to build a tool for analysis and support for decision making regarding policy on the allocation of the water resource, and also allowing a better reflection on the issue of water valorization in agricultural sector.