Modelling “Breaking Bad”: An economic model of drugs and population dynamics to predict how the series itself feeds back into the drug market

摘要

This stock&flow-model predicts population dynamics of crystal meth addicts related to the price development of drugs, inspired by the TV series “Breaking Bad”. The potential impact of the broadcasting of the TV series on the system is tested by using sudden (pulsed) changes of selected flows and rates to reveal the sensitivity of selected variables: Addicts, price relationship, dealers' saturation and Stock of Crystal Meth. While consumption, purchase and production show strong responses to those changes, other variables like getting addicted and weaning_off show weaker responses. These flows' reactions to pulsed changes of model parameters are analyzed and their significance is discussed.