Trend analysis of climatic variables in an arid and semi-arid region of the Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India

摘要

In the present study, trends and variations in climatic variables (i.e. rainfall, wet day frequency, surface temperature, diurnal temperature, cloud cover, and reference and potential evapotranspiration) were analyzed on seasonal (monsoon and non-monsoon) and annual time scales for the Ajmer District of Rajasthan, India. This was done using non-parametric statistical techniques, i.e. the Manna€“Kendall (MK) and Modified Manna€“Kendall (MMK) tests, over a period of 100 years. The MK test with prewhitening (MKa€“PW) of climatic series was also applied to climatic variables and the results were compared to those obtained through the MK and MMK tests in order to assess the performance of trend detection methods. The Pettitta€“Manna€“Whitney (PMW) test was applied to detect the temporal shift in climatic series. The trend analysis revealed that annual and seasonal rainfall did not show any statistically significant trend at a 10% significant level. A noticeable trend increase was found in wet day frequency, surface temperature and reference evapotranspiration (ET) during the non-monsoon season from the three non-parametric statistical tests at a 10% significance level. A statistically significant decrease in maximum temperature was found during the non-monsoon season by the MKa€“PW test alone. This analysis of several climatic variables at the district scale is helpful for the planning and management of water resources and the development of adaptation strategies in adverse climatic conditions.