Thermal conditions in Bydgoszcz Region in growing seasons of 2011–2050 in view of expected climate change/ Warunki termiczne w rejonie Bydgoszczy w okresie wegetacyjnym w latach 2011–2050 w ?wietle przewidywanej zmiany klimatu

摘要

The paper presents an analyse of the scenario of expected changes in monthly mean air temperature of months in the growing season (April-September) and growing seasons of 2011-2050 in Bydgoszcz Region. Prediction of thermal conditions is made using regional climate model RM5.1 with boundary values taken from global model ARPEGE. When compared with the reference period 1971-2000, an increase of mean air temperature should be expected in most months and growing seasons of the years 2011-2050. The biggest positive change in the mean monthly temperature is predicted for July (1.5°C) and August (1.2°C). In 2011-2050 significant increase trends of air temperature change can be expected in April, June and August. According to the thermal classification proposed by Lorenc, normal, slightly warm and slightly cool months and growing periods will dominate. The frequency of normal and slightly cool growing periods will decrease and the frequency of slightly warm growing periods will increase.