The Indicator Selection and Monitoring Analysis of Growth Rate Cycle in China

摘要

This paper chooses the monthly real growth rate of industrial added values, which have been released by the China National Bureau of Statistics, as the benchmark indicator. By using the large quantity of collected data, the actual value of indicators is obtained through deflating them by price index. Based on this result, 26 indicators from various areas of the economy are regarded as China's macro economic prosperity indicators via methods such as K-L approach, time difference correlation analysis as well as grading system, which correspond well with the fluctuation of benchmark indicator. Furthermore, this paper analyzes and forecasts the economic growth rate cycle of China by composite index and early warning signal system.