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How Important is Oil in Nigeria’s Economic Growth?

机译:石油在尼日利亚的经济增长中有多重要?

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This study assesses the importance of oil in the development of the Nigerian economy in a multivariate VAR model over the period 1960-2009. Empirical evidence shows that the five subsectors are cointegrated and that the oil can cause other non oil sectors to grow. However, oil had adverse effect on the manufacturing sector. Granger causality test finds bidirectional causality between oil and manufacturing, oil and building & construction, manufacturing and building & construction, manufacturing and trade & services, and agriculture and building & construction. It also confirms unidirectional causality from manufacturing to agriculture and trade & services to oil. No causality was found between agriculture and oil, likewise between trade & services and building & construction. The paper recommends appropriate regulatory and pricing reforms in the oil sector to integrate it into the economy and reverse the negative impact of oil on the manufacturing sub sector.
机译:这项研究通过多变量VAR模型评估了1960-2009年间石油在尼日利亚经济发展中的重要性。经验证据表明,这五个子行业是整合的,石油会导致其他非石油行业增长。但是,石油对制造业产生不利影响。格兰杰因果关系检验发现了石油与制造业,石油与建筑业,制造业与建筑业,制造业与贸易与服务业,农业与建筑业之间的双向因果关系。它还证实了从制造业到农业以及从贸易和服务到石油的单向因果关系。在农业与石油之间,以及在贸易与服务与建筑之间,都没有发现因果关系。该文件建议对石油部门进行适当的监管和价格改革,以使其融入经济并扭转石油对制造业子部门的负面影响。

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