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Risk Culture and the Role Model of the Honorable Merchant

机译:风险文化与光荣榜样

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The current discussion about a “risk culture” in financial services was triggered by the recent series of financial crises. The last decade saw a long list of hubris, misconduct and criminal activities by human beings on a single or even a collective basis in banks, in the industry or in the whole economy. As a counter-reaction, financial authorities called for a guidance by a “new” risk culture in financial institutions based on a set of abstract, formal, and normative governance processes. While traditional risk research in economics and in banking was focused on the statistical aspects of risk as the probability of loss multiplied by the amount of loss, culture is a paraphrase for the behavior in collectives and dynamics of organization found in human societies. Therefore, a “risk culture” should link the normative concepts of risk with the positive “real-world” decision-making in financial services. This paper will describe a novel view on “risk culture” from the perspective of human beings interacting in dynamical and intertemporal commercial relations. In this context “risk” is perceived by economic agents ex−ante as the consequence of the time lag between the present and the uncertain future development (compared to a probability distribution calculated by observers ex−post). For all those individual decisions—to be made under uncertainty—future “risk” includes the so-called “normal accidents”, i.e., failures that will happen at some uncertain point in time but are inevitable, and the only questions are when failure will happen and how to maintain function in the first line of defense. Finally, the shift from an abstract definition of “risk” as a probability distribution to a role model of “honorable merchants” as a benchmark for significant individual decision-making with individual responsibilities for the uncertain future outcome provides a new framework to discuss the responsibilities in the financial industry.
机译:当前有关金融服务中“风险文化”的讨论是由最近的一系列金融危机引发的。在过去的十年中,人们在银行,整个行业或整个经济中,在单一甚至集体的基础上,出现了各种各样的人类傲慢,行为不端和犯罪活动。作为一种反作用,金融当局呼吁金融机构基于一系列抽象,正式和规范的治理流程,以“新的”风险文化提供指导。传统经济学和银行​​业风险研究的重点是风险的统计方面,即损失的概率乘以损失的数量,而文化则是对人类社会中集体行为和组织动态的一种解释。因此,“风险文化”应将风险的规范概念与金融服务的积极“现实世界”决策联系起来。本文将从人类在动态和跨时期的商业关系中相互作用的角度描述一种关于“风险文化”的新颖观点。在这种情况下,经济主体事先将“风险”视为当前与不确定的未来发展之间的时间差的结果(与事后观察者计算出的概率分布相比)。对于所有那些在不确定性下做出的个人决定,未来的“风险”包括所谓的“正常事故”,即在某个不确定的时间点会发生但不可避免的故障,唯一的问题是何时故障会发生以及如何在第一道防线中保持功能。最后,从“风险”作为概率分布的抽象定义到“荣誉商人”的榜样作为重要的个人决策的基准,对不确定的未来结果负有个人责任的转变,为讨论责任提供了新的框架。在金融业。

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