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Spatial and Temporal Clustering Analysis of Extreme Wave Events around the UK Coastline

机译:英国海岸线附近极端海浪事件的时空聚类分析

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Densely populated coastal regions are vulnerable to extreme wave events, which can cause loss of life and considerable damage to coastal infrastructure and ecological assets. Here, an event-based analysis approach, across multiple sites, has been used to assess the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme storm-wave events around the coast of the United Kingdom (UK). The correlated spatial and temporal characteristics of wave events are often ignored even though they amplify flood consequences. Waves that exceeded the 1 in 1-year return level were analysed from 18 different buoy records and declustered into distinct storm events. In total, 92 extreme wave events are identified for the period from 2002 (when buoys began to record) to mid-2016. The tracks of the storms of these events were also captured. Six main spatial footprints were identified in terms of extreme wave events occurrence along stretches of coastline. The majority of events were observed between November and March, with large inter-annual differences in the number of events per season associated with the West Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA). The 2013/14 storm season was an outlier regarding the number of wave events, their temporal clustering and return levels. The presented spatial and temporal analysis framework for extreme wave events can be applied to any coastal region with sufficient observational data and highlights the importance of developing statistical tools to accurately predict such processes.
机译:人口稠密的沿海地区容易受到极端海浪事件的影响,这可能导致生命损失,并严重破坏沿海基础设施和生态资产。在这里,跨多个站点的基于事件的分析方法已用于评估英国(UK)海岸附近极端风暴波事件的空间足迹和时间聚类。波浪事件的相关时空特征经常被忽略,即使它们放大了洪水的后果。从18个不同的浮标记录中分析了超过1年回报水平中的1个的海浪,并将其聚集成不同的风暴事件。从2002年(浮标开始记录)到2016年中期,总共确定了92次极端波浪事件。这些事件的风暴的轨迹也被捕获。根据沿海岸线延伸的极端波浪事件,确定了六个主要的空间足迹。大部分事件发生在11月至3月之间,与西欧气压异常(WEPA)相关的每个季节的事件数量之间存在较大的年际差异。 2013/14风暴季节与海浪事件的数量,其时间聚类和回波水平有关。提出的针对极端海浪事件的时空分析框架可以应用于具有足够观测数据的任何沿海地区,并突出了开发统计工具以准确预测此类过程的重要性。

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