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Transmission Dynamics of Malaria in Ghana

机译:加纳疟疾的传播动态

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In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of malaria in Ghana is formulated taking into account human and mosquito populations. The model consists of seven non-linear differential equations which describe the dynamics of malaria with 4 variables for humans and 3 variables for mosquitoes. The state vector for the model is $(S_h, E_h, I_h, R, S_m, E_m, I_m,)$ where $S_h$, $E_h$, $I_h$, $R$, $S_m$, $E_m$ and $I_m$ respectively represent populations of susceptible humans, exposed humans, infectious humans, recovered humans, susceptible mosquitoes, exposed mosquitoes and infectious mosquitoes. Stability analysis of the model is performed and we make use of the next generation method to derive the basic reproduction number $R_0$. A mathematical analysis of the dynamic behaviour indicates that the estimated model has a unique endemic equilibrium point and malaria will persist in Ghana. The basic reproduction number for Ghana is found to be $R_0=0.8939$. Further, both the disease-free and endemic equilibria are locally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations indicate that reducing current biting rate of female Anopheles mosquitoes by 1/16 could assist Ghana to achieve malaria free status by the year 2037. If, in addition, the number of days it takes to recover from malaria infection were reduced to three 3 days malaria free status could be achieved by the year 2029.
机译:在本文中,考虑到人类和蚊虫种群,建立了确定性数学模型来研究加纳疟疾的传播动态。该模型由七个描述疟疾动态的非线性微分方程组成,其中人类有4个变量,蚊子有3个变量。模型的状态向量为$(S_h,E_h,I_h,R,S_m,E_m,I_m,)$,其中$ S_h $,$ E_h $,$ I_h $,$ R $,$ S_m $,$ E_m $和I_m $分别代表易感人群,暴露的人群,传染性人群,康复的人群,易感蚊子,易感蚊子和传染性蚊虫的种群。对该模型进行稳定性分析,我们利用下一代方法得出基本的再现数$ R_0 $。对动态行为的数学分析表明,估计的模型具有独特的地方平衡点,疟疾将在加纳持续存在。发现加纳的基本繁殖数量是$ R_0 = 0.8939 $。此外,无病平衡和地方性平衡均在局部渐近稳定。数值模拟表明,将雌性按蚊的当前叮咬率降低1/16可以帮助加纳到2037年实现无疟疾状态。此外,如果从疟疾感染中恢复过来的天数减少到三分之三,到2029年,可以实现无疟疾天数。

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