Jute Production in Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis | Science Publications

摘要

> >Jute is called the Golden Fiber of Bangladesh. Bangladesh iscurrently the second largest producer of jute fiber. Bangladesh fallsbehind its other competitors in applying recent technological advancements. Interms of world export of jute fiber, Bangladesh's share is more than 70%, whichmakes Bangladesh the largest exporter of jute fiber in the world. The globaldemand for jute and allied products has seen a steady increase driven by afresh comeback for biodegradable fiber as people now look for eco-friendlyproducts replacing synthetics. The main purpose of this research is to identifythe Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model that could be usedto forecast the production of jute in Bangladesh. This study considered thepublished secondary data of yearly jute production in Bangladesh over theperiod 1972 to 2013. The best selected Box-Jenkin’s ARIMA model for forecastingthe jute productions in Bangladesh is ARIMA(1,1,1). The comparison between theoriginal series and forecasted series shows the same manner which indicate thefitted model behaved statistically well and suitable to forecast the juteproductions in Bangladesh i.e., the models forecast well during and beyond theestimation period.