Managing Openness of the Chinese Economy to Sustain Its Economic Growth

摘要

Many studies suggest the positive causal effects of openness on productivity and growth. However, controversies are still prevalent among vast empirical studies on the issue. In this paper, we develop econometric models in the comprehensive framework to shed quantitative light on the implications of a scenario of deeper economic integration in China, where the barriers for trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are preferentially eliminated. Different versions of the econometric models are specified and numerically implemented. Each provides a framework to experiment the relationship between economic growth and trade, FDI in China. Our findings include: first, both FDI and trade have positive impact on long-term economic growth and no effect on short-term economic fluctuation; second, the interactions between FDI and policy, trade openness and policy have significant impact on economic growth, and with the rapid growth of FDI and trade, their marginal effects on economic growth is reduced; third, the impact of FDI on TFP is positive, and trade openness is also showed positive effect on TFP under the role of FDI. All these findings suggest that openness is becoming an important drive force of China's economic growth. It is necessary for Chinese government to manage openness to sustain its' economic growth.