The Application of Geobiocoenological Landscape Typology in The Modelling of Climate Change Implications

摘要

Geobiocoenological landscape typology, which is used in landscape planning in the Czech Republic, includes vegetation zonation of the landscape. Vegetation zones are determined by climatic conditions. Changes in climatic conditions will probably be manifested in the shift of vegetation zones in the landscape. Mathematical geobiocoenological model of vegetation zonation of the landscape is based on the general ecological relationship between the current vegetation zonation and present climatic conditions and the assumption that this general relationship will be maintained in the future. The paper presents the application of the model using the example of the prediction of changes in climatic conditions for the Norway spruce (the first-generation of the model) and grapevine (the second-generation of the model) in the Czech Republic. In the case of the Norway spruce example, the model shows that the predicted changes in climatic conditions will prevent the cultivation of the spruce in the Czech Republic outside its natural range in mountainous areas. The results of the presented model for grapevine show significant enlargement of areas climatically suitable for growing grapes within the studied area.These examples demonstrate the potential for the application of geobiocoenological landscape typology in the modeling of the effects of climate change in the landscape.