Habitat Suitability Modeling of Endangered Primates in Nigeria: Integrating Satellite Remote Sensing and Spatial Modeling Techniques

摘要

Thispaper investigates the impacts of forest cover and spatial structure changes onthe forest landscape across Afi-Mbe-Okwangwo protected area of Cross RiverState, Nigeria and its corresponding implication on two endangered primates(Cross River Gorilla and Nigeria-Cameroon Chimpanzee) habitat using satelliteremote sensing and modeling techniques. Using remote sensing change detectionanalysis, the spatial extent and annual rate of deforestation for the studyarea was determined as 34,620 hectares and 1.5% respectively (from 2000 to2014). The protected areas with highest annual deforestation rates were AfiMountain Wildlife Sanctuary (2.6%) and Mbe Mountains (2.2%), both prominent forgorilla and chimpanzee sightings and nests. Further investigations on changesto the forest landscape structure revealed high levels of forest fragmentationacross the study area for the 14-year period investigated. As a means of furtherunderstanding effects of forest landscapes changes across the study area, a14-year forward simulation was performed using the Markov model as to determinethe spatial extent of futuristic forest cover changes. The results showed thatif this current trend of forest cover change continued, 28,121 hectares offorests would be lost to deforestation in 2028 (approximately 16% of the totallandmass of the entire study area). Using Maxent modeling, suitable primatehabitats were predicted and the total coverage determined as 30,940 hectares(54.4% situated in CRNP—Okwangwo division, 29.4% in AMWS, 14.3% in MbeMountains and 1.9% in ARFR). Further analysis revealed 6468 hectares ofpredicted primate habitat were affected by deforestation in 2014 (21% of thepredicted primate habitats). These results indicate that suitable primatehabitats (particularly for gorillas and chimpanzees) are under immense pressurefrom deforestation and forest fragmentation. This paper presents a costeffective and time saving approach for determining suitable primate habitatsand understanding the effects of forest transition on primate habitatsuitability.