Increasing incidence in liver cancer in Canada, 1972–2006: Age-period-cohort analysis

摘要

Background/Aims: Our study aimed to assess 1) the temporal trends in incidence and mortality of liver cancer and 2) age-period-cohort effects on the incidence in Canada. Methods: We analyzed data obtained from the Canadian Cancer Registry Database and Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database. We first examined temporal trends by sex, age group, and birth cohort between 1972 and 2006. Three–year period rates and annual percentage change (APC) were calculated to compare the changes over the study period. We used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate underlying effects on the observed trends in incidence. Results: The overall age-adjusted incidence rates increased from 2.6 and 1.5 per 100 000 in 1972–74 to 6.5 (APC: 2.9) and 2.2 (APC: 1.2) per 100 000 in 2004–06 among males and females, respectively. The age-adjusted mortality rates increased from 3.3 and 2.0 per 100 000 in 1972–74 to 6.0 (APC: 2.3) and 2.6 (APC: 1.2) per 100 000 in 2004–06 among males and females, respectively. The incidence increased most rapidly in men aged 45–54 years (APC: 4.1) and women aged 65–74 years (APC: 1.7) over the period of study. Conclusions: The age-period-cohort analysis suggests that birth-cohort effect is underlying the increase in incidence. While the exact reason for the increased incidence of liver cancer remains unknown, reported increase in HBV and HCV infections, and immigration from high-risk regions of the world may be important factors.