Short and Long-term Asymmetric Farm-Retail Price Transmission Analysis in the Canadian Agri-food Industry: Evidence from Dairy and Pork Sectors with Threshold Cointegration Models

摘要

Empirical studies show that market concentration and pricing policies regulation have an important impact on price transmission. These factors lead to an asymmetric price transmission, particularly in agricultural commodities markets. This paper investigates farm-retail price transmission along the Canadian dairy and pork values chains using Threshold Autoregressive, Momentum Threshold Autoregressive, Error Correction Models and Granger causality test. Using monthly price data, we found that farm-retail price transmission is asymmetric in short and long-term between raw milk and butter price while it is symmetric in the cheese case. In the pork sector, price transmission is asymmetric in long-term and symmetric in short-term between farm price and respectively pork chops and bacon prices. Because of processor and retailer concentration, consumer prices respond more quickly to upward than downward of farm prices. The processors, retailers and distributors concentration along the value chain in Canadian dairy and pork sectors and the supply management regulation policies as well as income stabilization insurance program are the main factors generating this market structure. Consideration of the characteristics of farmers, processors, and retailers in the value chain and the actors' potential reactions to the agricultural policy could better protect consumers and producers from market distortion.