SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODELLING AND SIMULATION FOR CULTIVATION OF FOREST LAND: CASE STUDY PERUM PERHUTANI, CENTRAL JAVA, INDONESIA

摘要

The deforestation and forest degradation rates have a propensity to rise every year. The problems in pertaining with the issue is not solely preoccupied on the ecological concern but also to the socio-economic impacts. The complexity of forest management is a serious barrier in determining a better management policy. Modeling system is a simple method to describe the real situation in nature. A qualitative approach is used to identify the relationship between the dynamics of important behaviors. The causal relationships among the factors were investigated by using causal loop diagram. The model conceptualization was constructed by using a stock-flow diagram. The result of the simulation model was used to determine the alternative policies for better forest management. The results indicated that the tenant welfare would be enhanced through the provision of production-sharing by 25% and the Corporate Social Responsibility by 2%, which yields a reduction in cultivated area of ??916.61 ha within a period of 67 years or a decline of land area by an average of 13.68 ha per year.