Establishing a daily rainfall occurrence simulation model for the Langat River catchment, Malaysia

摘要

For the study of water resources of a catchment, an immediate task would be to establish a good model for predicting the probable daily rainfall occurrence and rainfall amount. This study presents the simulation of daily rainfall occurrence using the generalized linear model (GLM), the non-homogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) and the bootstrap aggregated classification tree (BACT) model. The major challenge of NHMM is the determination of optimum number of hidden states, which can be achieved using the Bayesian information criterion score. While the determination of number of grown tree is another challenge for BACT model, this critical task can be achieved with the help of out-of-bag classification error. Both the NHMM and BACT model outperformed the GLM to capture the rainfall persistence and spell lengths distribution. Through the validation phase, the BACT model exhibited better performance with the higher indices of probability of detection, critical success index, Heidke skill score and Peirce skill score, than other models. The prediction ability of the NHMM is equivalent to an unskilled random forecast with the skill scores nearly equal to zero. At the end, the BACT model was recommended as the appropriate daily rainfall occurrence model for this study.