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Wind speed prediction with RBF neural network based on PCA and ICA

机译:基于PCA和ICA的RBF神经网络风速预测。

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Thanks to non-pollution and sustainability of wind energy, it has become the main source of power generation in the new era worldwide. However, the inherent random fluctuation and intermittency of wind power have negative effects on the safe and stable operation of power system and the quality of power. The key solving this problem is to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. In the paper, considering the forecasting accuracy is affected by many factors, we propose that, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is combined with Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to process the sample, which can weaken the mutual interference between the various factors, extract accurately independent component reflected the characteristics of wind farm and achieve the purpose of improving the accuracy of wind speed prediction. At the same time, the adaptive and self-learning ability of neural network is more suitable for wind speed sequence prediction. The prediction results demonstrate that compared with the traditional neural network predicting model (RBF, BP, Elman), this model makes full use of the information provided by varieties of relevant factors, weakens the volatility of wind speed sequence and significantly enhances the short-term wind speed forecasting accuracy. The research work in the paper can help wind farm reasonably arrange the power dispatching plan, reduce the power operation cost and effectively boost the large-scale development and utilization of renewable energy.
机译:得益于风能的无污染和可持续性,它已成为全球新时代的主要发电来源。然而,风电固有的随机波动和间歇性对电力系统的安全稳定运行和电力质量产生不利影响。解决这一问题的关键是提高风速预测的准确性。在本文中,考虑到预测精度受多种因素影响,我们建议将主成分分析(PCA)与独立成分分析(ICA)相结合来处理样本,这可以减弱各个因素之间的相互干扰,提取出准确独立的组成部分反映了风电场的特点,达到提高风速预测精度的目的。同时,神经网络的自适应和自学习能力更适合风速序列预测。预测结果表明,与传统的神经网络预测模型(RBF,BP,Elman)相比,该模型充分利用了各种相关因素提供的信息,减弱了风速序列的波动性,并显着增强了短期风速预测准确性。本文的研究工作可以帮助风电场合理安排电力调度方案,降低电力运行成本,有效促进可再生能源的大规模开发利用。

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