Relationship Between Demand-supply in the Housing Market and Unsold New Housing Stocks

摘要

The phenomenon of unsold new housing stocks is an important indicator in the housing market system; it is directly related to the profitability of the construction business and appears as a result of an imbalance in the demand and supply of houses. Changes in demand-supply because of various factors are another phenomenon that occurs in the housing market. It is considered that these changes in demand-supply are closely related to the unsold new housing stocks. Therefore, we analyze the relationship between demand-supply in the housing market and unsold new housing stocks using the vector error correction model. We used data from Seoul as the spatial scope of this study, and the temporal scope of time series data ranged from July 2001 to July 2009. To obtain the time series data, databases of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Marine Affairs, Statistics Korea, CERIK, and Kookmin Bank were utilized. The results of variance decomposition analyses indicated that for changes in unsold new housing stocks, the explanatory powers of housing selling price indexes and housing loans were high while the explanatory powers of production factors were relatively low. Based on the results of impulse response analyses, the quantity of unsold new housing stocks showed larger changes in response to the impulses of housing prices and housing loans than to the impulse of production factors. Also, it was indicated that, among the production factors, unsold new housing stocks showed a pattern of continued change in relation to the financing status of suppliers while showing impromptu responses to the impulses of the material or manpower situation but no continued change.