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Dynamics Evolution of Credit Risk Contagion in the CRT Market

机译:CRT市场中信用风险传染的动态演变

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This work introduces a nonlinear dynamics model of credit risk contagion in the credit risk transfer (CRT) market, which contains time delay, the contagion rate of credit risk, and nonlinear resistance. The model depicts the dynamics behavior characteristics of evolution of credit risk contagion through numerical simulation. Meanwhile, numerical simulations show that, in the CRT market, the contagion rate of credit risk and the nonlinear resistance among CRT activities participants have some significant effects on the dynamics behaviors of evolution of credit risk contagion. Specifically, on the one hand, we find that the status curve of credit risk contagion that causes some significant changes with the increase in the contagion rate of credit risk, moreover, emerges a series of Hopf bifurcation and chaotic phenomena in the process of credit risk contagion. On the other hand, Hopf bifurcation and chaotic phenomena appear in advance with the increase in the nonlinear resistance coefficient and time-delay. In addition, there are a series of periodic windows in the chaotic interval inside, including Hopf bifurcation, inverse bifurcation, and chaos.
机译:这项工作介绍了信用风险转移(CRT)市场中信用风险传染的非线性动力学模型,该模型包含时间延迟,信用风险传染率和非线性阻力。该模型通过数值模拟描述了信用风险传染演变的动力学行为特征。同时,数值模拟表明,在CRT市场中,CRT活动参与者之间信用风险的传染率和非线性阻力对信用风险传染的演变动力学行为具有重要的影响。具体而言,一方面,我们发现随着信用风险传染率的增加,信用风险传染的状态曲线发生了一些显着变化,而且在信用风险过程中出现了一系列霍普夫分叉和混沌现象。传染。另一方面,随着非线性电阻系数和时滞的增加,霍普夫分叉和混沌现象提前出现。此外,内部的混沌间隔中还存在一系列周期性窗口,包括Hopf分叉,逆分叉和混沌。

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