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Judgmental Overconfidence and Trading Activity

机译:判断过度自信和交易活动

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We investigate the theoretically proposed link between judgmental overconfidence and trading activity. In addition to applying classical measures of miscalibration, we introduce a measure to capture misperception of signal reliability, which is the relevant bias in the theoretical overconfidence literature. We relate the obtained overconfidence measures to trading activity in call and continuous experimental asset markets. Our results confirm prior findings that classical miscalibration measures are not related to trading activity. However, misperception of signal reliability is significantly linked to trading volume, particularly in the continuous market. In addition, we find that men trade more than women at high levels of risk aversion, but the gender trading gap vanishes as risk aversion lessens. The reason is that the trading activity of women seems to be more sensitive to risk attitudes than that of men.
机译:我们研究了判断上的过度自信与交易活动之间的理论联系。除了应用经典的错误校准措施外,我们还引入了一种措施来捕获对信号可靠性的错误感知,这是理论上过分自信的文献中的相关偏见。我们将获得的过度自信度量与看涨期权和连续实验资产市场中的交易活动相关。我们的结果证实了先前的发现,即经典的失调措施与交易活动无关。但是,对信号可靠性的误解与交易量有很大关系,尤其是在连续市场中。此外,我们发现,在较高的风险规避水平下,男性比女性的交易更多,但是随着风险规避程度的降低,性别之间的贸易鸿沟消失了。原因是女性的交易活动似乎比男性的交易活动对风险态度更为敏感。

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