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The Dynamics of Demand and Supply of Electricity in Nigeria

机译:尼日利亚的电力供求动态

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This paper presents an empirical analysis of the demand and supply of electricity in Nigeria. The analysis was performed using annual times series data for the period 1970 to 2012. For this purpose, we estimated the long–run demand and supply equations for electricity using the reduced form regression method (RFRM) and the Vector error correction method (VECM) approach. Our analysis revealed that the theoretical modeling requirements rather than the simplified reduced form regression in the simultaneous equation system to satisfy the statistical requirements determine the choice of the statistical model. The results from the estimated model in terms of individual parameters in the system revealed that both price and income are demand elastic. As such, increasing electricity price in Nigeria would lead to a reduction in revenue by Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN). The study also show that PHCN is currently experiencing diseconomies of scale as a result of inefficiency, inability to innovate as well as the necessary knowledge needed to expand output so as to reduce average cost. Similarly, the paper posits that the current reform in the electricity sector would only lead to increase in average unit cost and hence the price of electricity. We therefore recommend that for the Nigerian electricity sector to be viable as well as meet the supply and demand needs of both the private, commercial and industrial sector of the economy, the government at all levels, policy and decision makers must take stringent measures to curtail the problem of inefficiency, lack of manpower, be able to innovate so as to reduce wastage to its lowest web. This will not only bolster the growth of the Nigerian economy but will also be a source of revenue for the government for its infrastructural development needs. Keywords: Electricity demand and supply, Annual data, Simultaneous equation method and Vector error correction method (VECM)
机译:本文对尼日利亚的电力供需进行了实证分析。使用1970年至2012年的年度时间序列数据进行了分析。为此,我们使用简化形式回归方法(RFRM)和矢量误差校正方法(VECM)估算了电力的长期供需方程。方法。我们的分析表明,为了满足统计要求,联立方程系统中的理论建模要求而非简化的简化形式回归决定了统计模型的选择。根据系统中各个参数的估计模型得出的结果表明,价格和收入都是需求弹性的。因此,尼日利亚电价上涨将导致尼日利亚电力控股公司(PHCN)的收入减少。该研究还表明,由于效率低下,创新能力不足以及扩大产量以降低平均成本所需的必要知识,PHCN目前正在经历规模不经济的情况。同样,该论文认为,当前电力部门的改革只会导致平均单位成本的增加,从而导致电力价格的增加。因此,我们建议为了使尼日利亚的电力部门能够生存并满足经济的私营,商业和工业部门的供需需求,各级政府,政策和决策者必须采取严格的措施来减少效率低下,缺乏人力的问题,能够进行创新,以将浪费减少到最低程度。这不仅将促进尼日利亚经济的增长,而且还将成为政府满足其基础设施发展需求的收入来源。关键字:电力供需,年度数据,联立方程法和矢量误差校正法(VECM)

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