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Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions

机译:社会水文学:概念化的人与水之间的相互作用

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Over history, humankind has tended to settle near streams because of the role of rivers as transportation corridors and the fertility of riparian areas. However, human settlements in floodplains have been threatened by the risk of flooding. Possible responses have been to resettle away and/or modify the river system by building flood control structures. This has led to a complex web of interactions and feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains. This paper is an attempt to conceptualise these interplays for hypothetical human-flood systems. We develop a simple, dynamic model to represent the interactions and feedback loops between hydrological and social processes. The model is then used to explore the dynamics of the human-flood system and the effect of changing individual characteristics, including external forcing such as technological development. The results show that the conceptual model is able to reproduce reciprocal effects between floods and people as well as the emergence of typical patterns. For instance, when levees are built or raised to protect floodplain areas, their presence not only reduces the frequency of flooding, but also exacerbates high water levels. Then, because of this exacerbation, higher flood protection levels are required by society. As a result, more and more flooding events are avoided, but rare and catastrophic events take place.
机译:在历史上,由于河流作为交通运输走廊的作用和河岸地区的肥沃性,人类倾向于在溪流附近定居。但是,洪泛区的人类住区受到洪水风险的威胁。可能的反应是通过建造防洪结构来重新安置和/或修改河流系统。这导致定居洪泛区的水文和社会过程之间形成复杂的相互作用和反馈机制网络。本文试图为假设的人类洪水系统概念化这些相互作用。我们开发了一个简单的动态模型来表示水文和社会过程之间的相互作用和反馈回路。然后,使用该模型来探索人驱系统的动力学特性以及改变个人特征(包括诸如技术发展之类的外部强迫)的影响。结果表明,该概念模型能够再现洪水与人与人之间的相互影响以及典型模式的出现。例如,为保护洪泛区而建造或抬高堤坝时,堤坝的存在不仅减少了洪水泛滥的频率,而且加剧了高水位。然后,由于这种加剧,社会需要更高的防洪等级。结果,避免了越来越多的洪水事件,但是发生了罕见的灾难性事件。

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