In the present paper we describe some methods for verifying andevaluating probabilistic forecasts of hydrological variables. Wepropose an extension to continuous-valued variables of averification method originated in the meteorological literaturefor the analysis of binary variables, and based on the use of asuitable cost-loss function to evaluate the quality of theforecasts. We find that this procedure is useful and reliable whenit is complemented with other verification tools, borrowed fromthe economic literature, which are addressed to verify thestatistical correctness of the probabilistic forecast. Weillustrate our findings with a detailed application to theevaluation of probabilistic and deterministic forecasts of hourlydischarge values.
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