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Operational aspects of asynchronous filtering for flood forecasting

机译:洪水预报的异步过滤的操作方面

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This study investigates the suitability of the asynchronous ensemble Kalmanfilter (AEnKF) and a partitioned updating scheme for hydrologicalforecasting. The AEnKF requires forward integration of the model for theanalysis and enables assimilation of current and past observationssimultaneously at a single analysis step. The results of dischargeassimilation into a grid-based hydrological model (using a soil moistureerror model) for the Upper Ourthe catchment in the Belgian Ardennes show thatincluding past predictions and observations in the data assimilation methodimproves the model forecasts. Additionally, we show that elimination of thestrongly non-linear relation between the soil moisture storage andassimilated discharge observations from the model update becomes beneficialfor improved operational forecasting, which is evaluated using severalvalidation measures.
机译:这项研究调查了异步集成卡尔曼滤波器(AEnKF)和水文预报的分区更新方案的适用性。 AEnKF需要对模型进行前向集成以进行分析,并能够在单个分析步骤中同时吸收当前和过去的观测结果。比利时阿登上奥特河上游流域的同化排放到基于网格的水文模型(使用土壤湿度误差模型)的结果表明,在数据同化方法中包括过去的预测和观察可以改善模型的预测。此外,我们表明,从模型更新中消除土壤水分存储和同化排放观测值之间的强非线性关系,对于改进运行预测是有益的,这可以使用几种验证措施进行评估。

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