Forecasting supply and demand in nursing professions: impacts of occupational flexibility and employment structure in Germany

摘要

Background In light of Germany's ageing society, demand for nursing professionals is expected to increase in the coming years. This will pose a challenge for policy makers to increase the supply of nursing professionals. Methodology To portray the different possible developments in the supply of nursing professionals, we projected the supply of formally trained nurses and the potential supply of persons who are able to work in a nursing profession. This potential supply of nursing professionals was calculated on the basis of empirical information on occupational mobility provided by the German Microcensus 2005 (Labour Force Survey). We also calculated how the supply of full-time equivalents (FTEs) will develop if current employment structures develop in the direction of employment behaviour in nursing professions in eastern and western Germany. We then compared these different supply scenarios with two demand projections ('status quo' and 'compression of morbidity' scenarios) from Germany's Federal Statistical Office. Results Our results show that, even as early as 2005, meeting demand for FTEs in nursing professions was not arithmetically possible when only persons with formal qualification in a nursing profession were taken into account on the supply side. When additional semi-skilled nursing professionals are included in the calculation, a shortage of labour in nursing professions can be expected in 2018 when the employment structure for all nursing professionals remains the same as the employment structure seen in Germany in 2005 (demand: 'status quo scenario'). Furthermore, given an employment structure as in eastern Germany, where more nursing professionals work on a full-time basis with longer working hours, a theoretical shortage of nursing professionals could be delayed until 2024. Conclusions Our analysis of occupational flexibility in the nursing field indicates that additional potential supply could be generated by especially training more young people for a nursing profession as they tend to stay in their initial occupation. Furthermore, the number of FTEs in nursing professions could be increased by promoting more full-time contracts in Western Germany. Additionally, employment contracts for just a small number of weekly working hours (marginal employment) cannot be considered an adequate instrument for keeping formally trained nursing professionals employed in the nursing field.