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Evaluating post-processing approaches for monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts

机译:评估后处理方法以进行月度和季节性流量预测

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Streamflow forecasting is prone to substantial uncertainty due to errors in meteorological forecasts, hydrological model structure, and parameterization, as well as in the observed rainfall and streamflow data used to calibrate the models. Statistical streamflow post-processing is an important technique available to improve the probabilistic properties of the forecasts. This study evaluates post-processing approaches based on three transformations – logarithmic (Log), log-sinh (Log-Sinh), and Box–Cox with λ=0.2 (BC0.2) – and identifies the best-performing scheme for post-processing monthly and seasonal (3-months-ahead) streamflow forecasts, such as those produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Using the Bureau's operational dynamic streamflow forecasting system, we carry out comprehensive analysis of the three post-processing schemes across 300 Australian catchments with a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Forecast verification is assessed using reliability and sharpness metrics, as well as the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS). Results show that the uncorrected forecasts (i.e.?without post-processing) are unreliable at half of the catchments. Post-processing of forecasts substantially improves reliability, with more than 90?% of forecasts classified as reliable. In terms of sharpness, the BC0.2 scheme substantially outperforms the Log and Log-Sinh schemes. Overall, the BC0.2 scheme achieves reliable and sharper-than-climatology forecasts at a larger number of catchments than the Log and Log-Sinh schemes. The improvements in forecast reliability and sharpness achieved using the BC0.2 post-processing scheme will help water managers and users of the forecasting service make better-informed decisions in planning and management of water resources. Highlights. Uncorrected and post-processed streamflow forecasts (using three transformations, namely Log, Log-Sinh, and BC0.2) are evaluated over 300 diverse Australian catchments. Post-processing enhances streamflow forecast reliability, increasing the percentage of catchments with reliable predictions from 50?% to over 90?%. The BC0.2 transformation achieves substantially better forecast sharpness than the Log-Sinh and Log transformations, particularly in dry catchments.
机译:由于气象预报,水文模型结构和参数化以及用于校准模型的观测降雨和溪流数据中的误差,溪流预报容易产生很大的不确定性。统计流后处理是可用于改善预测的概率属性的重要技术。这项研究基于对数(Log),对数正弦(Log-Sinh)和Box-Cox(λ= 0.2(BC0.2))的三种转换对后处理方法进行了评估,并确定了最佳的后处理方案处理每月和季节性(提前3个月)的流量预测,例如澳大利亚气象局的预测。我们使用无线电通信局的业务动态流量预测系统,对300个澳大利亚流域,水文气候条件广泛的三个后处理方案进行了综合分析。预测验证使用可靠性和清晰度指标以及连续排名概率技能得分(CRPSS)进行评估。结果表明,未校正的预报(即没有进行后处理)在流域的一半处是不可靠的。预测的后处理大大提高了可靠性,超过90%的预测被归类为可靠。在清晰度方面,BC0.2方案明显优于Log和Log-Sinh方案。总体而言,与Log和Log-Sinh方案相比,BC0.2方案在更多集水区实现了可靠且比气候更清晰的预报。使用BC0.2后处理方案可以提高预报的可靠性和清晰度,这将有助于水资源管理者和预报服务的用户在水资源规划和管理中做出更明智的决策。强调。对300多个不同的澳大利亚流域进行了未经校正和后处理的流量预测(使用三个转换,即Log,Log-Sinh和BC0.2)。后处理提高了流量预测的可靠性,将可靠预测的流域百分比从50%增加到90%以上。与Log-Sinh和Log转换相比,BC0.2转换获得的预报清晰度要好得多,尤其是在流域。

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