A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology: identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach

摘要

It is increasingly acknowledged that, in order to sustainably manage globalfreshwater resources, it is critical that we better understand the nature ofhuman–hydrology interactions at the broader catchment system scale. Yet todate, a generic conceptual framework for building models of catchmentsystems that include adequate representation of socioeconomic systems – andthe dynamic feedbacks between human and natural systems – has remainedelusive. In an attempt to work towards such a model, this paper outlines ageneric framework for models of socio-hydrology applicable to agriculturalcatchments, made up of six key components that combine to form the coupledsystem dynamics: namely, catchment hydrology, population, economics,environment, socioeconomic sensitivity and collective response. Theconceptual framework posits two novel constructs: (i) a compositesocioeconomic driving variable, termed the Community Sensitivity statevariable, which seeks to capture the perceived level of threat to acommunity's quality of life, and acts as a key link tying together one ofthe fundamental feedback loops of the coupled system, and (ii) a BehaviouralResponse variable as the observable feedback mechanism, which reflects landand water management decisions relevant to the hydrological context. Theframework makes a further contribution through the introduction of threemacro-scale parameters that enable it to normalise for differences inclimate, socioeconomic and political gradients across study sites. In thisway, the framework provides for both macro-scale contextual parameters,which allow for comparative studies to be undertaken, and catchment-specificconditions, by way of tailored "closure relationships", in order to ensurethat site-specific and application-specific contexts of socio-hydrologicproblems can be accommodated. To demonstrate how such a framework would beapplied, two socio-hydrological case studies, taken from the Australianexperience, are presented and the parameterisation approach that would betaken in each case is discussed. Preliminary findings in the case studieslend support to the conceptual theories outlined in the framework. It isenvisioned that the application of this framework across study sites andgradients will aid in developing our understanding of the fundamentalinteractions and feedbacks in such complex human–hydrology systems, andallow hydrologists to improve social–ecological systems modelling throughbetter representation of human feedbacks on hydrological processes.