The problem of minimization of impact of vehicles’ technical condition (V) and technological design of the production base for motor transport enterprises (MTEs) on the road traffic accident rate is investigated in the article. It is shown that the deterministic cycle method, used in practice, possesses low efficiency for small MTEs as well as for service stations maintaining their rolling stock. Correction of the methodology of technological calculations to ensure the guaranteed performance of works on subsystems and vehicle aggregates having the most influence on the accident rate is substantiated. The normal law of distribution of initial parameters of data for technological design is substantiated. The fundamentals of the methodology for using in calculations not a constant value of the average daily run, but its randomly distributed value are stated. The formulas enabling to determine the distribution parameters of the technical readiness coefficient and volumes of the works performed are proposed. The quantile of the standard normal distribution used in formulas, the value of which is assumed according to the specified probability of work performance, enables, when determining capacities necessary for technical servicing and repair (TSR) of separate systems, units and aggregates, to specify probability of their performance taking into account the impact on the safety parameters.
展开▼
