Potential climate-induced distributions of iLophodermium/i needle cast across centralSiberia in the 21 century

摘要

Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease inpine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events toclimatic variables in 1997–2010 showed that the disease depended most onprecipitation of two successive?years. Temperature conditions were importantto trigger the disease in wetter?years. We used our regional bioclimaticenvelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution andits outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needlecast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks wouldalready have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas woulddecrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, thedisease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted bythe slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potentialpathogen progression.