Estimation of the value of time for automated driving using revealed and stated preference methods

摘要

In recent years the transportation system, and in particular road vehicles, are becoming increasingly automated and connected. Thus there is the expectation that in the near future there will be fully automated vehicles on roads. Support for road vehicles automation include increased safety, more efficient transport system, as well as increase of the comfort level and enabling users to do other activities while travelling. Especially the last two aspects might potentially change the way people perceive the time spent travelling by car and hence lead to a reduction of the value of time in terms of willingness to pay for saving travel time. Additionally, automation enables new mobility options and access to car use for people who are currently not able or not willing to drive. As a result, mode choice preferences and travel behaviour might change in favour of the individual motorized transport. Understanding these changes is crucial when predicting the impact of automation in the context of developing a sustainable and efficient future transportation system. This study addresses the potential mode choice preference changes once automated driving becomes available. For this purpose, a stated choice experiment for currently available modes of transport and a second experiment on potentially future available alternatives were conducted. Two concepts of automated vehicles are considered – a privately owned vehicle and a vehicle on demand (i.e., a driverless taxi). This paper describes the survey design as well as the methodology used in the study and presents the first results of model estimations using simple multinomial logit for the analysis of the study data. The results suggest a potential reduction in the value of time for automated driving. Solutions for the integration of the results into a microscopic travel demand models as well as further analysis are discussed.