Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of the Bheri River Basin, Nepal

摘要

Streamflow alteration is one of the most noticeable effects of climate change. This study explored the effects of climate change on streamflow in the Bheri River using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 4.5 and 8.5) for the periods of 2020–2044, 2045–2069, and 2070–2099 were used to investigate the impact of climate change. Based on the ensemble of the three models, we observed an increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures at the rate of 0.025 °C/year and 0.033 °C/year, respectively, under RCP 4.5, and 0.065 °C/year and 0.071 °C/year under RCP 8.5 in the future. Similarly, annual rainfall will increase by 6.8–15.2% in the three future periods. The consequences of the increment in rainfall and temperature are reflected in the annual streamflow that is projected to increase by 6–12.5% when compared to the historical data of 1975–2005. However, on a monthly scale, runoff will decrease in July and August by up to 20% and increase in the dry period by up to 70%, which is favorable for water users.