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Warning Model for Shallow Landslides Induced by Extreme Rainfall

机译:极端降雨诱发浅层滑坡预警模型

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In this study, the geophysical properties of the landslide-prone catchment of the Gaoping River in Taiwan were investigated using zones based on landslide history in conjunction with landslide analysis using a deterministic approach based on the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability) model. Typhoon Morakot in 2009 was selected as a simulation scenario to calibrate the combination of geophysical parameters in each zone before analyzing changes in the factor of safety (FS). Considering the amount of response time required for typhoons, suitable FS thresholds for landslide warnings are proposed for each town in the catchment area. Typhoon Fanapi of 2010 was used as a test scenario to verify the applicability of the FS as well as the efficacy of the cumulative rainfall thresholds derived in this study. Finally, the amount of response time provided by the FS thresholds in cases of yellow and red alerts was determined. All five of the landslide events reported by the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau were listed among the unstable sites identified in the proposed model, thereby demonstrating its effectiveness and accuracy in determining unstable areas and areas that require evacuation. These cumulative rainfall thresholds provide a valuable reference to guide disaster prevention authorities in the issuance of yellow and red alerts with the ability to reduce losses and save lives.
机译:在这项研究中,利用基于滑坡历史的区域以及基于TRIGRS(瞬时降雨入渗和基于网格的区域性坡度的确定性方法)的滑坡分析,对台湾高坪河滑坡易发地区的地球物理性质进行了研究。 -稳定性)模型。在分析安全系数(FS)之前,选择了2009年的台风莫拉克(Morakot)作为模拟方案来校准每个区域的地球物理参数组合。考虑到台风需要的响应时间,建议为集水区中的每个城镇提供适合滑坡预警的FS阈值。使用2010年的台风Fanapi作为测试场景,以验证FS的适用性以及本研究得出的累积降雨阈值的功效。最后,确定黄色和红色警报情况下FS阈值提供的响应时间。水土保持局报​​告的所有五次滑坡事件均列在建议模型中确定的不稳定地点中,从而证明了其在确定不稳定地区和需要疏散地区的有效性和准确性。这些累积的降雨阈值为指导防灾当局发布黄色和红色警报具有减少损失和挽救生命的能力提供了宝贵的参考。

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