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Estimation of Instantaneous Peak Flow Using Machine-Learning Models and Empirical Formula in Peninsular Spain

机译:西班牙半岛使用机器学习模型和经验公式估算瞬时峰值流量

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The design of hydraulic structures and flood risk management is often based on instantaneous peak flow (IPF). However, available flow time series with high temporal resolution are scarce and of limited length. A correct estimation of the IPF is crucial to reducing the consequences derived from flash floods, especially in Mediterranean countries. In this study, empirical methods to estimate the IPF based on maximum mean daily flow (MMDF), artificial neural networks (ANN), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) have been compared. These methods have been applied in 14 different streamflow gauge stations covering the diversity of flashiness conditions found in Peninsular Spain. Root-mean-square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) have been used as evaluation criteria. The results show that: (1) the Fuller equation and its regionalization is more accurate and has lower error compared with other empirical methods; and (2) ANFIS has demonstrated a superior ability to estimate IPF compared to any empirical formula.
机译:水工建筑物的设计和洪水风险管理通常基于瞬时峰值流量(IPF)。但是,具有高时间分辨率的可用流动时间序列稀缺且长度有限。 IPF的正确估算对于减少山洪暴发的后果至关重要,特别是在地中海国家。在这项研究中,比较了基于最大平均日流量(MMDF),人工神经网络(ANN)和自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)估算IPF的经验方法。这些方法已被应用在14个不同的流量测量站中,这些站涵盖了西班牙半岛发现的泛滥状况。均方根误差(RMSE)和确定系数(R 2)已用作评估标准。结果表明:(1)与其他经验方法相比,Fuller方程及其区域化更准确,误差更小; (2)与任何经验公式相比,ANFIS都具有出色的IPF估算能力。

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