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Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Dry-Wet Abrupt Transition Based on Precipitation in Poyang Lake Basin, China

机译:Po阳湖流域干湿突变的时空特征

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The dry-wet abrupt transition (DWAT) is a typical anomaly of precipitation at the subseasonal scale and may result in a severer and greater hydro-meteorological hazard. This paper identified and examined the DWAT events in terms of precipitation in Poyang Lake basin, including both from dry to wet (DTW) and from wet to dry (WTD), during the period of 1960–2010 and analyzed its characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution and intra- and inter-annual tendencies based on the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The results revealed that the DTW was inclined to occur in March, but WTD in July and September; the inter-annual variation of the DWAT index showed a feeble long-term increasing trend in July and a decreasing trend in September with a Z-statistic of 1.81 and −1.44, respectively, although none of these trends achieved the statistical significance level (α = 0.05); the north parts of Poyang Lake basin experienced more DWAT events during the last 50 years in which the occurrence of WTD is more frequent than that of DTW. The outcomes of the study will help mitigate and regulate the flood and drought in Poyang Lake basin, as well as in other regions.
机译:干湿突变(DWAT)是亚季节尺度降水的典型异常,可能导致更严重和更大的水文气象危害。本文确定并研究了yang阳湖流域1960–2010年期间DWAT事件的降水,包括干湿(DTW)和湿干(WTD),并分析了其时空特征分布以及基于Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验的年内和年际趋势。结果显示,DTW倾向于在3月发生,而WTD则在7月和9月发生; DWAT指数的年际变化显示7月份的长期增长趋势微弱,9月份的下降趋势,Z统计量分别为1.81和−1.44,尽管这些趋势均未达到统计显着性水平(α = 0.05);在过去的50年中,Po阳湖流域北部发生了更多的DWAT事件,其中WTD的发生比DTW的发生更为频繁。该研究的结果将有助于减轻和控制Po阳湖流域以及其他地区的洪水和干旱。

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