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A Cellular Automaton Framework for Infectious Disease Spread Simulation

机译:用于传染病传播模拟的元胞自动机框架

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In this paper, a cellular automaton framework for processing the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases is presented. The developed environment simulates and visualizes how infectious diseases might spread, and hence provides a powerful instrument for health care organizations to generate disease prevention and contingency plans. In this study, the outbreak of an avian flu like virus was modeled in the state of Tyrol, and various scenarios such as quarantine, effect of different medications on viral spread and changes of social behavior were simulated.The proposed framework is implemented using the programming language Java. The set up of the simulation environment requires specification of the disease parameters and the geographical information using a population density colored map, enriched with demographic data.The results of the numerical simulations and the analysis of the computed parameters will be used to get a deeper understanding of how the disease spreading mechanisms work, and how to protect the population from contracting the disease. Strategies for optimization of medical treatment and vaccination regimens will also be investigated using our cellular automaton framework.In this study, six different scenarios were simulated. It showed that geographical barriers may help to slow down the spread of an infectious disease, however, when an aggressive and deadly communicable disease spreads, only quarantine and controlled medical treatment are able to stop the outbreak, if at all.
机译:本文提出了一种细胞自动机框架,用于处理传染病的时空传播。发达的环境模拟并可视化了传染病的传播方式,因此为医疗保健组织制定疾病预防和应急计划提供了强大的工具。在这项研究中,以蒂罗尔州为模型模拟了禽流感的暴发,并模拟了隔离,不同药物对病毒传播的影响以及社会行为改变等各种情况。语言Java。模拟环境的建立需要使用人口密度彩色图指定疾病参数和地理信息,并丰富人口统计数据,数值模拟的结果和计算参数的分析将用于更深入的了解疾病传播机制的运作方式,以及如何保护人群免于感染疾病。我们还将使用细胞自动机框架研究优化医疗和疫苗接种方案的策略。在本研究中,模拟了六个不同的场景。结果表明,地理障碍可能有助于减缓传染病的传播,但是,当侵略性和致命性传染病传播时,只有隔离和控制的医疗手段才能阻止爆发。

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