Comparison of Neural Networks and Logistic Regression in Assessing the Occurrence of Failures in Steel Structures of Transmission Lines

摘要

In this work, we evaluate the probability of falling metal structures from transmission lines. It is our objective to extract knowledge about which variables influence the mechanical behavior of the operating lines and can be used to diagnose potential falling towers. Those pieces of information can become a basis for directing the investments of reinforcement structures, avoiding the occurrence of long turn offs and high costs as a consequence of damage to towers of transmission lines. The results are obtained using the history of 181 metal structures currently in operation in the state of Paraná/Brazil. For the classification of transmission lines susceptible to failures it is proposed to identify the most likely lines considering the following parameters: operating voltage, wind and relief of the region, air masses, temperature, land type, mechanical capacity, function and foundation structure. The classic technique of classifying binary events used in this type of problem is the logistic regression (LR). The more recent technique for classification, using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) can also be applied. The results are compared through the area under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves.