Biases in nest survival associated with choice of exposure period: A case study in North American upland game birds

摘要

ABSTRACT Estimated probability of daily nest survival is commonly used to derive cumulative nest survival for a specified nest-exposure period. For many species of birds, the presence of a parent is an important cue used by researchers to locate nests, but in some cases nest detection rates are reduced during egg laying, when parents spend a greater amount of time away from the nest. As a result, sample size becomes limited during the laying stage. Researchers must then choose between 2 alternative strategies for deriving cumulative nest survival, based on either (1) exposure length for only the incubation period or (2) exposure length for laying plus incubation. Both approaches carry implicit assumptions, the violation of which can result in bias. We reviewed recent literature and describe the extent to which these 2 strategies were used in studies of galliform birds (including grouse, quail, and Wild Turkey [Meleagris gallopavo]) in North America. We then evaluated the theoretical potential for bias und...