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Time‐consistent optimal fiscal policy over the business cycle

机译:业务周期中时间一致的最佳财务政策

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This paper examines a dynamic stochastic economy with a benevolent government that cannot commit to its future policies. I consider equilibria that are time‐consistent and allow for history‐dependent strategies. A new numerical algorithm is developed to solve for the set of equilibrium payoffs. For a baseline economy calibrated to the U.S. economy, the capital income tax with the highest social welfare is slightly procyclical, while the labor income tax is countercyclical. Compared with the data, this equilibrium provides a better account of the cyclical properties of U.S. tax policy than other solutions that abstract from history dependence. The welfare cost of no commitment is about 0.22% of aggregate consumption as compared to the Ramsey allocation with full commitment.
机译:本文研究了一个充满活力的随机经济,其善良的政府无法承诺其未来的政策。我认为均衡是时间一致的,并允许采用依赖历史的策略。开发了一种新的数值算法来求解一组平衡收益。对于校准为美国经济的基准经济体,具有最高社会福利的资本所得税是略周期性的,而劳动所得税是反周期性的。与数据相比,与从历史依赖中抽象出来的其他解决方案相比,这种均衡可以更好地说明美国税收政策的周期性特征。与完全承诺的Ramsey分配相比,没有承诺的福利成本约为总消费的0.22%。

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