Proposed model to improve the forecast of the planned value in the estimation of the final cost of the construction projects

摘要

The productivity of an engineering project is determined by the value assigned to the PV (Planned Value). Since the PV is not precise, mathematical models are used to obtain a final cost forecast and control the project. In this work, the PV value is improved to reduce the error of the forecasts. Statistical confidence intervals were used to determine the standardization of work process times. As a result, this brings a more accurate PV, with a more accurate and lower difference between PV and EV (Earned Value). Two projects of two Mexican companies have been monitored. The resources used were 30 analysts during a two-year period. The proposed model proves to be more accurate at all stages of the project.